Summary
Europe’s transition towards climate neutrality by 2050 requires major shifts in the structure of our economy and society – and wide societal backing. But how do citizens perceive climate change and what kind of EU climate policies do they support? A new survey among German voters shows that Germans generally prefer policy packages that (1) target financial support within the renewable energy sector, (2) include social investment policies, (3) are financed by increasing taxes on the wealthy, and (4) distribute resources across EU member states based on population size. Based on these findings, this policy paper formulates recommendations for climate policy making – inter alia to couple climate mitigation policies with social investment or compensatory measures for lower-income households.
Results and policy implications
The aim of this report is not to debate the benefits and pitfalls of EU-level climate change mitigation policies and the pros and cons of specific design features. Instead, I focus on what they mean for public support and how the German population relates to them. This research nevertheless leads to some indications for policymaking:
- An overwhelming majority of respondents acknowledge that climate change is a process that is at least partially caused by humans. They tend to expect rather negative consequences from climate change, even more so for people living in other regions of the world. This means: Even amidst the current crises that often serve to argue against the importance or even reasonableness of climate policies, there is leeway for policymakers to implement climate policies that help reach the EU’s goals.
- German citizens are sensitive to the design of EU-level climate change mitigation policy. They generally prefer packages that target financial support towards the renewable energy sector, include social investment policies, are financed by increasing taxes on the wealthy, and distribute resources across EU member states based on population size.
- Support for EU climate change mitigation policies appears to grow among both low- and high-income groups when these initiatives are coupled with social investment or compensatory measures for lower-income households.
- Policymakers might care to consider that, especially for low-income groups, the negative effect of introducing a tax increase on fossil fuels can be compensated by an explicit social policy dimension.
- The relatively unpopular cross-country distribution principles based on greenhouse gas emissions and employment in polluting industries indicate public concerns about moral hazard. Citizens may well fear that this would reward polluting EU member states for their inaction on climate change and enable them to profit from EU funding without making any efforts to decarbonise. This highlights a challenge for the EU in designing effective policies for the green transition as it suggests that moral hazard concerns outweigh collective interests.
- Citizens’ concerns and expectations need to be taken seriously. Failing to do so may erode the political basis of the green transition in the EU.
About the survey data
The data presented in this policy paper was collected in an online survey of the German adult resident population conducted by pollsters IPSOS between January 11 and 30, 2023. The sample consisted of 5,796 respondents. Quotas for age, gender, education, and region (including cross-quota between age and gender) ensured that the sample was representative of the demographic composition of the general population aged 18-75 years. For descriptive statistics in this policy paper (Figure 1-2), any remaining deviations are corrected through weighting.
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