In our latest GPA Strategist Hour, we asked how the democratic centre can answer the AfD’s autumn 2026 state election successes – and why community and movement building may be the key.
Germany’s political landscape has shifted dramatically: The right-wing AfD recently has won two state elections, may soon lead a state government, and has topped national polls since September 2025. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his conservative party are under considerable pressure, while social democrats are struggling to balance the responsibilities of government with the need to rebuild its electoral credibility, and the Greens are still redefining their political offer after their time in government.
So the challenge for progressives and the democratic mainstream alike is twofold: responding to the far right while rebuilding political strength, confidence and a compelling offer of their own. And the question is: How?
This was the central question of our latest GPA Strategist Hour on October 14th, 2026 – an event series hosted in cooperation between the Center for American Progress and Das Progressive Zentrum, chaired by their Policy Fellow Maria Skóra. Together with 50 participants from the political and pre-political spheres in Germany, Europe and the U.S., Alexander Petring, Meliora Foundation – Civic Bridge and political adviser to social democratic Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, and David Simon, Chief of Staff to Franziska Brantner, Co-Chair of Alliance 90/The Greens, discussed lessons learned – and how progressives can rebuild. The following reflects themes and arguments raised across the discussion and in line with the rules of the format.
The sober diagnosis: The SPD faces a profound strategic and electoral renewal challenge after years of governing responsibility and compromise. The Greens, now in opposition, have rebuilt through internal renewal and a string of electoral successes, but remain short of coalition partners and of trust beyond their urban base.
Looking for strategies forwards amidst this situation, the discussion kept circling back to a core core idea: community, not just content. Participants argued that the 2026 elections were won by those who built belonging:
- Movements beat manifestos: A recurring argument was that the AfD’s success rests not only on protest sentiment but on community-building, a lesson the centre has yet to absorb. Die Linke’s Berlin campaign – anchored in an existing housing movement, offering concrete help with rents and fronted by a candidate many voters could identify with – gained momentum late and finished well above its final polls.
- Presence over paper: Door-knocking, thousands of volunteers campaigning for weeks in the East, and sustained engagement with voters well beyond traditional progressive constituencies. People want explanation, participation and empathy, not policy detail.
- A progressive patriotism: There was a consensus about how with “Made in Germany” pride fading, participants called for a pro-European, liberal-values-based sense of belonging that can anchor a national movement.
- Simpler politics: The discussion suggested that over-complex tax, pension and welfare systems leave voters unable to see the changes and differences governments actually make through their work. Simpler, more understandable solutions can be part of rebuilding trust.
- Beyond the zero-sum game: Cross-camp coalitions make coherent reforms harder. Progressive parties need more coordinated strategies to win majorities rather than compete for the same academic, urban electorate.
A further point stressed was the role of former non-voters, at certain points in time the largest “party” in Germany. Many of them have returned to the ballot box in recent years, and a large share now vote for the AfD. Yet, there are also progressive and centrist voters among them; and reaching them is crucial for winning elections in an era of high turnout. It’s a must at least for SPD and CDU/CSU. For the Christian Democratic Union this is a particular problem since many of its former voters are exactly those who have moved to the AfD – and are not easily won back. Progressive parties, by contrast, can at least mobilise against the AfD, although to very different degrees.
And next? The SPD has a leadership contest to run and will publish their long-term vision as a party at the end of 2027. This year’s state elections also gave promising signs, with good performances by progressives in Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin. The Greens delivered a strong electoral comeback in Baden-Württemberg, combining a pragmatic, centrist pitch with a distinctly civic and republican appeal. In Berlin, Die Linke emerged as the strongest party, particularly among younger voters, despite considerable headwinds.
And there is voter potential to be unlocked: about 70 per cent of Germans still say they would not vote for the AfD. But it has to be tapped. Progressives must build communities and movements of their own while delivering visibly in government. Without both, the middle will keep eroding.
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