Global Progress Action Strategist Hour: Poland’s Pivotal Presidential Election – A Clash of Visions

On June 1, Poland’s presidential race culminated in a run-off between two candidates representing starkly opposing visions for the country. Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Donald Tusk’s liberal-conservative Civic Platform (PO), has now been defeated by the PiS-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki. 

This election was widely regarded as the definitive test of Tusks’s commitment to restoring democratic norms and practices. Although the 2023 parliamentary shift ousted PiS from government, the party’s influence persists through President Andrzej Duda, who has systematically obstructed key judicial and media reforms. Rather than bridging divides, the political landscape has grown more polarised, with a pronounced rightward drift sidelining progressive voices. Karol Nawrocki’s victory raises fears of further entrenchment of this stalemate.

Poland plays a critical role in Europe’s defence and security architecture, particularly amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. The election’s outcome will not only shape Poland’s domestic trajectory but also reverberate across the EU and NATO, influencing everything from rule-of-law reforms to military cooperation.

What key themes dominated the campaign, and how did they reflect Poland’s political divide? Which issues proved most decisive in swaying voters, and what strategies did each side use to mobilize their base? And looking ahead: What will be Poland’s domestic and foreign policy priorities under its new leadership—and how might this reshape its role in Europe?

We will discuss these and other questions with:

• Marcin Duma, CEO, IBRIS Institute for Social and Market Research, Warsaw
• Paul Hilder, Pollster, Strategist and Campaign Adviser to Rafał Trzaskowski

Further, Max Brändle, Director Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Warsaw, will share his views on how the election outcome could reshape Poland’s position within the European landscape and the Weimar Triangula. The debate will be moderated by Maria Skóra, Policy Fellow at Das Progressive Zentrum.

The invite-only session will follow Chatham House Rule.

The event is a cooperation between the Center for American Progress Action and Das Progressive Zentrum.

Participation is only possible by personal invitation. If you have any questions, please contact us at events@progressives-zentrum.org.

Contact

Florian Ranft

Member of the Management Board and Head of Green New Deal

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