What some feared ahead of the state election on Sunday has become a political reality. The AfD’s right-wing extremist state branch in Saxony-Anhalt is within reach of executive power. The party gained a decisive victory with 43.8 per cent of the vote share, securing 39 of 83 seats and falling just three short of an absolute majority in the state parliament. Its state branch has been classified as “confirmed right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence service. The left-wing populist BSW has meanwhile become the only other party in the new parliament to accept the AfD’s invitation to talks about possible cooperation. What those talks will lead to remains open. But one thing has changed fundamentally: executive power for the AfD is no longer a hypothetical scenario.
But it is clear that this will have far-reaching consequences for regional and national politics and, most importantly, for the people and minority groups of Saxony-Anhalt who did not vote for the AfD. They are now exposed to an environment of jubilant right-wing success accompanied by toxic nationalism as well as sentiments of hate, discrimination and, in some communities, extremism – all of which will have a real impact on people’s daily lives.
Against this setting, three takeaways are likely to shape the state’s and Germany’s politics and society over the next weeks and months:
1. Containment by the centre-left is not a compelling strategy for success
As in other countries, the primary dividing line of left vs right is being overshadowed by the contest between democratic and authoritarian forces. Yes, the electoral competition for votes and power between the centre-right and centre-left over how to change the country will persist and will continue to produce competing visions on the left and right. And it must do so. But Germany is no longer an exception to the surge of right-wing populists across Europe.
This shift is more fundamental and will require new concepts, strategies and political leadership in the political centre that were absent in this election (a point made by others, including Cas Mudde here). Although the SPD and Greens performed fairly well by their own standards, they failed to offer a convincing political alternative for improving people’s lives and addressing the grievances of potential voters, namely social security, peace in Ukraine, or the economy which ranked top among voters’ concerns.
2. The firewall has not failed – but it will be severely tested
The AfD’s 43.8 per cent does not in itself prove that Germany’s so-called firewall has failed. Its purpose was never to make the AfD smaller in the polls. It is to prevent a party hostile to core principles of liberal democracy from gaining access to executive power. But there is an uncomfortable lesson here as well. A firewall buys time. It does not tell democratic parties what to do with that time. Keeping the AfD out of power cannot substitute for addressing the conditions that have made it so strong.
Following the next set of state elections there will be a heated debate within the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) about the extent to which Friedrich Merz’s heavily criticized performance as Chancellor contributed to his party’s electoral disaster. And whether he can hang on as Chancellor which seems likely at this stage as there is no convincing challenger in sight.
One silver lining of the outcome may be that the result does not render the so-called firewall obsolete. Under a potential AfD state government, the CDU will not have to formally make any deals with the AfD. But time will tell whether the party will hold firm against more radical voices from within who think otherwise. The party would be well advised to uphold the so-called firewall with the far-right.
A working paper by Annina Hermes and Heike Klüver examining 1,237 cabinets across 57 democracies between 1976 and 2023 provides first evidence. The findings suggest that governing responsibility does not automatically moderate or weaken radical-right parties. On average, they gain around six percentage points at the next election with little evidence of meaningful political moderation. This is a key point for those in the CDU who advocate for softening the firewall with the AfD to prevent further electoral marginalisation in places such as Saxony-Anhalt.
3. Saxony-Anhalt could become a laboratory for normalising far-right state power
The shock waves of this election will be felt elsewhere. Two more state elections are due to take place on 20 September, one in Berlin and one in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In the latter, the structural economic and demographic conditions are comparable to those in Saxony-Anhalt. The lessons from the failure of the political centre to offer a credible alternative must be learned quickly now. And the broad international coverage of this election is justified. There were even rumours that there were more international correspondents than locals on the main square in the state capital, Magdeburg, on election night.
The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has an authoritarian and extremist policy agenda and is well prepared to roll it out just like MAGA in the US, PiS in Poland or Viktor Orbán in Hungary did. We should not rely on the AfD’s incompetence or governing failure to defeat them. Sticking to their election manifesto they would implement an agenda of national identity in schools and universities, the police forces and the media. This would show that they can deliver on identity politics whilst continuing to point the finger at decisionmakers in Berlin on economic and social grievances: If you want real change, you will have to vote for us in the next federal election. This would serve as a real test for the AfD if they were to ever win an election at the national level.
We should be under no illusion about the stakes for Germany and Europe. But neither panic nor the hope that power will expose the AfD is a strategy. Progressives and others need to use the time that institutional safeguards still provide: to restore governing capacity, address material grievances and offer a credible democratic vision of change. Waiting for the AfD to fail is not a strategy.
