Reviewing the German Bundestag elections, we analyse the results and campaign dynamics, highlight missteps by the progressive camp, and explore the key challenge: balancing responsible governance with programmatic renewal.
I. The Setting: Campaign with Strong Headwinds for Progressives
Key issues: At the forefront of voters’ minds were peace and security, the economy/recession, cost of living, social security, migration, and climate protection. Among these, the top three concerns—peace and security, the economy, and cost of living—consistently ranked highest and are not traditionally policy areas where progressive parties have a strong foothold.
Candidates: The three leading candidates—Olaf Scholz from the SPD, Robert Habeck from the Greens, and Friedrich Merz from the CDU—all struggled with low popularity ratings. Notably, Merz became the most unpopular candidate to ever win a federal election.
Public mood: The prevailing public mood could be described as tense resignation, coupled with a fragile hope for stability. This sentiment reflects the widespread perception of the traffic-light coalition as one of the least effective governments in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. The combination of economic anxiety, political dissatisfaction, and a longing for stability underscores the challenges Germany faces as it navigates an uncertain future in terms of its security and the economy.
Track-record of traffic-light coalition: Just before its collapse, the traffic-light coalition (SPD, Greens, and FDP) faced extremely low satisfaction ratings: 85% of the public were dissatisfied, while only 14% expressed satisfaction. While this was not a historic low, it marked the fifth-worst rating for a federal government. The trend was clear: since February 2022, public satisfaction with the traffic-light coalition had been on a steady decline.
Migration: Although migration became a dominant issue in the final stages of the campaign, particularly after a horrific knife attack in a Bavarian park and Friedrich Merz’s push for stricter migration policies with support from the far-right AfD, it did not break into the top three concerns for most voters but was merely the most pressing concern of AfD voters.
II. The Result: Key Facts and Interpretations of a
Weakening Centre Ground
Shake up of the centre ground: The recent election results reveal a fractured political landscape in Germany, with the centre weakened and the fringes strengthened. A quarter of voters cast their ballots for regressive forces (AfD & BSW), a third opted for conservative or market-liberal parties (CDU & FDP), and 40% supported progressive parties (SPD, Greens and Left Party). This fragmentation underscores the erosion of the political centre, leaving only one viable coalition option and no possibility of a two-thirds majority. The weakening of the centre has emboldened the fringes—on the right, the far-right AfD, and on the left, the democratic Left Party, though it remains to be seen how constructive the latter will be. Importantly, the electoral result is a sign of a rapidly transforming political landscape.
Record Turnout and the Rise of the AfD: The election saw the highest voter turnout since reunification, a sign of heightened political engagement. However, the AfD emerged as the biggest beneficiary of non-voters, attracting 1.8 million voters—as many as all other parties combined. This highlights an alarming trend: despite the CDU and governing parties (SPD and Greens) adopting tougher stances on migration, it was the AfD that reaped the rewards. This suggests that fierce rhetoric on migration does little to bolster progressive and mainstream parties, and instead fuels support for the far right.
III. The Faults of the Progressive Camp
The SPD and Greens, the traditional pillars of the progressive camp, failed to meet the expectations of the electorate.
- The SPD recorded its worst result in history, losing support across the board—particularly to the AfD among workers, young voters, and urban dwellers. The party’s programmatic stagnation and lack of a coherent vision for the future of the economy, Europe, and immigration alienated its base and other potential voters.
- The Greens, despite achieving their second-best result ever, fell short of their potential (which polls suggested could have reached up to 18%). Robert Habeck’s campaign strategy of targeting liberal CDU voters (the so-called “Merkel gap”) backfired, and the party’s focus on climate change came too late to mobilize core supporters. In urban areas, the Greens suffered significant losses to the Left Party, particularly in Berlin.
- The Left Party delivered a strong performance, benefiting from Friedrich Merz’s adoption of AfD rhetoric with respect to migration, a sophisticated door-to-door campaign, and a mix of established figures (‘Silberlocken’) and fresh faces. However, much of its success came at the expense of the SPD and Greens, in parts mirroring the rise of left-wing alliances in France in the 2024 ballot.
- The CDU, despite emerging as the largest party, failed wato reach the 30% threshold, leaving it without a strong governmental mandate. Friedrich Merz’s erratic leadership style further complicates the party’s prospects, making it a challenging partner for the SPD in any potential coalition.
- The AfD doubled its vote share, solidifying its position as an established political force. While the party will remain in opposition, its influence is no longer confined to the east; it is now a nationwide phenomenon. The AfD’s success, however, is owed much less to its own efforts and more to the weaknesses and missteps of the traffic light coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) and the CDU.
Coalition Prospects and Declining Trust: The most likely outcome is a two-party coalition between the CDU and SPD, made possible only by Germany’s electoral rules, which left 7-8 million voters unrepresented inside parliament (including FDP and BSW supporters). Negotiations between the two parties are ongoing, and the parliament is due to pass legislation that would allow a significant investment in security and infrastructure spending.
This alliance will face significant challenges in governing effectively, given the weakness of the economy and the immediate threats to the European security architecture posed by the Trump administration. Beyond the immediate political implications, the election reflects a broader crisis of trust in politics. Since the pandemic, fewer and fewer people believe that politics can solve major challenges. This disillusionment, coupled with the fragmentation of the political landscape, poses a profound threat to Germany’s democratic resilience.
IV. The Challenges: A Balance Act Between Governing Responsibly and Programmatic Renewal
The 2025 election has left Germany’s progressive parties—the SPD and the Greens—facing a daunting dual challenge: for the SPD, it is governing responsibly while simultaneously renewing their programmatic platform. This means navigating the delicate balance between maintaining stability and delivering progress. For the Greens, it involves rebuilding trust among their core supporting base and redefining their role in a rapidly shifting political landscape. Meanwhile, the Left Party must demonstrate its ability to evolve into a credible partner for a potential left-wing coalition.
The SPD’s Dilemma: Progress vs. Stability
The SPD’s task is nothing short of monumental. The party must renew its programmatic vision while likely assuming the responsibility of governing in a fragile coalition. Olaf Scholz’s success in 2021 may prove to be an outlier rather than a blueprint for the future. The SPD’s core identity is rooted in progress and modernization, but its recent electoral losses—particularly among workers, young voters, and urban dwellers—suggest a disconnect between the party’s achievements and its ability to claim credit for them. The challenge for the SPD is fourfold. First, it must articulate a coherent and compelling vision for the future of Germany’s economy, its role in Europe, and its approach to immigration. This is a pressing issue that needs to be addressed in order to regain trust among young voters, many of whom supported the Left party and AfD.
Second, it must be ensured that its accomplishments in government are clearly linked to its political brand. If the SPD fails to do this, it risks being perceived as a party of the status quo rather than a driver of progress. Third, the SPD has suffered significant losses among working-class voters, with its support now standing at just 12% (down from 26%), placing it behind the AfD (38%) and the CDU (22%). This decline highlights a critical challenge for the Social Democrats: they must reconcile their role as a party of modernization with their traditional mandate to represent and advocate for workers. To regain trust and relevance, the SPD needs to articulate a clear vision that incorporates the economic anxieties of the working class while embracing progressive policies that align with the demands of a modern, inclusive society and economic renewal. Failure to bridge this gap risks further erosion of its core base.
The Greens: Rebuilding Trust and Redefining Leadership
The Greens, despite achieving their second-best result, face significant internal and external challenges. With Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock stepping back from leadership responsibilities, the party is poised for major structural changes. The Greens must now focus on “Project 2029,” a long-term strategy to rebuild trust and reconnect with voters who are increasingly sceptical of the party’s proposed solutions to pressing issues like climate change and economic inequality.
The Greens’ recent losses in urban areas to the Left Party highlight the need for a more pragmatic approach and the reconnection with the party’s original mission to address the urgent ecological crisis and revive the trust of its voter base. While climate change remains the party’s core strength, it must broaden its appeal and demonstrate that its policies can deliver tangible benefits for all segments of society. This will not only require the pursuance ofinnovative ideas but also a renewed commitment to transparency and accountability.
The Left Party: A Test of Credibility
The Left Party’s strong performance in the election has positioned it as a potential kingmaker in future coalitions. However, the party faces a critical test: it must develop a responsible and credible position on foreign and security policy that aligns with the SPD and Greens. Without this, the prospect of a Red-Red-Green (RRG) coalition will remain out of reach. The Left Party’s success in drawing votes from the SPD and Greens underscores its potential to appeal to disillusioned progressive voters. However, to become a viable governing partner, it must move beyond its traditional opposition role and demonstrate that it can offer constructive and pragmatic solutions to Germany’s security and foreign policy challenges.
Challenges for the New Government and Progressives
The new German government and progressive forces face a series of profound challenges that will define the country’s future. From safeguarding democracy to reforming the economic model and redefining Germany’s role in Europe, the tasks ahead are immense. Here’s a closer look at the key areas that demand urgent attention:
- Democracy: Building Firewalls and Reclaiming the Centre: The rise of the far-right AfD and the erosion of trust in democratic institutions pose existential threats to Germany’s political stability. Referencing Timothy Snyder, Germany is in a strong position to uphold the “firewall” against authoritarian forces given its commitment to democratic values, rule of law, and historical memory. The narrative of the AfD’s inevitable rise must be challenged; it is not a linear trajectory, and history shows that far-right parties can be marginalized with the right strategies. The political centre must also reclaim its relevance. The dystopian narrative of the “last bullet for democracy” must be met with responsible government action and replaced with a vision of hope and resilience. Progressives must articulate a compelling alternative to the AfD’s divisive rhetoric, one that addresses the legitimate grievances of voters without compromising democratic values.
- Reforming the German Economic Model – Investing in the Future: Germany’s economic model is at a crossroads. Decades of underinvestment have left the country lagging behind European averages, and the ‘Schuldenbremse’ anchored in the German constitution (debt brake) has become a straitjacket on growth. Rather than relying on short-term fixes like special funds for security and defence and infrastructure, the government must tackle the debt brake head-on and advocate for a broader reform that allows for sustained investment in infrastructure, innovation, and green technologies. The ecological transformation must remain a priority. Germany’s industrial transformation needs a redesign, one that balances economic competitiveness with sustainability. This is not just an environmental imperative, but an economic one, as global markets increasingly demand green solutions.
- Social Justice – Addressing Inequality and Generational Divides: Germany’s demographic trends, skyrocketing rents, and pressures on social welfare spending have created a sense of injustice, particularly among young people. Many feel they are bearing the financial burden of older generations without seeing adequate investments in their future. The campaigns offered few solutions to these challenges, leaving a gap that the new government must address. Policies that promote affordable housing, equitable access to education, and a fairer distribution of resources are essential to rebuilding trust and ensuring social cohesion.
- Europe, Foreign Policy, and Security: A New Approach: Germany’s role in Europe and on the global stage must be reimagined. A ‘Politik der Klugheit’ (politics of wisdom) requires a departure from the missteps of the Scholz era at the European and international level. Strengthening the European axis—particularly the partnership between France, Germany, and Poland, with an eye toward re-engaging the UK—is critical. Without a strong EU or a ‘coalition of the willing’, the fundamental challenges of economic competitiveness, defence, and climate change cannot be solved.
Technological sovereignty is another pressing issue. Germany and Europe must reduce their dependence on China and the US, fostering innovation and securing supply chains in key industries. Additionally, European security leadership must be prioritized, especially in light of growing global instability. The new government, however, lacks a clear mandate for foreign and security policy. The campaign saw little debate on these issues, and controversial remarks by the Trump administration came onlyto the fore during the final stages when it was too late to have a substantial discourse on the matter. This vacuum must be filled with a coherent and forward-looking strategy.
