Five days after the general elections in Germany, the exploratory talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD begin as of today, Friday. The fact that the past few days have been characterised not by attempts at rapprochement, but by disputes over electoral law and a so called “small question” to the existing government by the CDU/CSU, raises fears that the two parties have not yet recognised the severity of the situation. After all, the problems and challenges facing the new government could not be greater.
In terms of domestic policy, these include the poor state of the economy, where no improvement is in sight; the challenges of ecological transformation, which still exist, even if they were barely addressed in the election campaign; the deep dissatisfaction among the population; the strong shift to the right and the success of the AfD; the perceived insecurity and the (supposed) problems with migration.
Added to this are the geopolitical distortions: the ongoing war in Ukraine and the new Trump administration with its attack on liberal democracy in the USA, as well as on the international world order and NATO. In light of this, deeper European cooperation and unity is more necessary than ever – especially in the area of defence policy. Germany must quickly resume leadership responsibility here alongside France and Poland.
Necessary rapprochement: from combat to cooperation mode
At the same time, the new government does not have favourable conditions. As described, the challenges are huge – but so is the mistrust between the likely future partners. In recent years, and particularly during the election campaign, deep divisions have emerged between the SPD and the CDU/CSU. It is now important that bridges are built quickly and that both sides disarm verbally. Neither the country, nor the EU and our international partners can afford another government characterised by constant dispute and disagreement.
A historic compromise on the issues of migration and investment in infrastructure should be at the centre of the new government. These two issues are closely intertwined and at the same time central to the peace and sustainability of our society. Institutional reforms in migration policy and a reform of the debt brake are the litmus test for the viability of this coalition. The SPD would therefore be extremely ill-advised to abandon its top priority in this compromise – comprehensive investment in Germany’s future – even with the old majorities, by agreeing to a special fund for the armed forces (Bundeswehr) that is not sufficient in any way and does not solve either of our country’s infrastructure problems.
New government under pressure to act
The overarching challenge arising from the other problem complexes is the debt brake. Strengthening defence both nationally and at European level, transforming the economy and eliminating the public investment backlog: these tasks cannot be solved without a reform of the debt brake.However, the new government would have to rely on the Left Party to make the necessary decisions – and they will have to pay a price for their agreement. If the CDU/CSU does not want to take this risk, it must now come up with a comprehensive financing proposal for defence and infrastructure that can still be implemented with the old parliament majorities.
Finding a solution to the migration issue is not getting any easier. Although both parties agree that there is a need for action, many of the CDU/CSU’s demands are not acceptable to the SPD. The CDU/CSU’s rushed action of agreeing to unripe policies with the AfD shortly before the election did not make it any easier to reach an agreement and find a compromise on this topic. In addition, the new government is under pressure to act – after all, the CDU/CSU has promised to solve the problems with migration. However, if the SPD is prepared to go a little beyond the parties political pain threshold on the migration issue and the CDU/CSU on the debt brake issue, a solution is in sight that is not only face-saving for both sides, but also good for the country.
Problem of democratic representation – opening up to society
It is not only crucial for the coalition’s ability to function, but also for its social viability that it becomes a government of compromise and negotiation with future-oriented perspectives. After all, a black-red government would only represent a small section of society – above all the older section. A government without the youth can quickly become a government without a future. In addition, due to the narrow non-entry of the FDP and BSW as well as the other small parties in the new Bundestag, almost 15 per cent of the votes are not represented at all. This means that many millions of voters have no voice in parliament, even though they have voted. This is a problem for the acceptance of democracy – one that all parties should think about.
How can an inclusive government for all still be formed? How can the pressure on this government to succeed after the failure of the traffic lights be answered positively? As it will be difficult to tackle the major challenges within the loopholes of a defensive government alliance, a certain degree of openness will probably be required. An opening to society that places the government’s acceptance on a broader footing would be an important basis for breaking out of its own narrowness and addressing the breadth of social interests. A policy focussed solely on the top-down and its own clientele will not be enough to reconcile society and motivate it to tackle the major challenges. A good government needs not only the ability to compromise internally, but also close co-operation with society.
